Thursday, December 13, 2007

Beware Islamist Plants In Debates

Election '08: Muslim activists are in a full-court press to influence the presidential debates — and war policy. No matter what they say, they don't represent ordinary Muslim citizens.



What they really represent are the interests of the radical Muslim Brotherhood, which are decidedly anti-American. Groups tied to the Brotherhood are planting questioners at the debates, and CNN and other hosts aren't the wiser.

In the past three presidential debates, Muslims were picked to challenge candidates about homeland-security and war policy as it relates to Muslims. Despite prescreening, the questioners were presented to the public as moderate Muslims concerned about alleged anti-Islamic excesses in the war.

Yet they are associated with two Muslim groups that U.S. prosecutors have linked to the Brotherhood, a worldwide jihadist movement that, according to recent court documents, has secretly plotted to take over America from within. They plan to do that precisely by using our political freedoms against us.

Islamists are stealthily injecting into the political debates their militant agenda, which includes: withdrawing from both and Iraq and Afghanistan, ending airport terrorist profiling, killing the Patriot Act and giving special rights to Muslims.

They're influencing the national security dialogue in a way that drums up sympathy for the enemy while lowering our collective guard in the middle of a war on Islamic terrorists.

The terror-tied Council on American-Islamic Relations managed to plant a questioner in each of the past two debates. We know this because CAIR bragged about its coup on its Web site in both cases.

During the Democrat debate in Des Moines, Iowa, the head of CAIR's Chicago chapter complained that U.S. Muslims face "abuses and prejudices and discriminations on a regular basis."

Ahmed Rehab asked Sen. John Edwards if he would help them fight the "culture of fear-mongering" since 9/11, to which Edwards replied, "We've got to stop this racial profiling that's going on."

For good measure, Edwards also vowed to "close Guantanamo, which I think is a national embarrassment," and end "illegal spying" on terrorist suspects.

Rehab flashed him a thumbs-up sign, and his coterie of Muslim activists broke into applause and cheers.

At last month's GOP debate in St. Petersburg, Fla., a former CAIR intern was selected by host CNN to ply White House hopefuls. Appearing in a video, veiled in a hijab, Yasmin Elhady made a stink about both the U.S. invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, from where Osama bin Laden safely ordered the attacks on New York and Washington.

"My question has to do with both the current crisis in Iraq, as well as the U.S. efforts in Afghanistan," said Elhady, identified only as "Yasmin from Huntsville, Ala."

"After living abroad personally in the Middle East for a year, I realized just how much damage the Iraq War and perception of invasion has done to the image of America," Elhady added. "What would you do as president to repair the image of America in the eyes of the Muslim world?"

Hey, Yasmin, what would you do to repair the violent, intolerant image of Islam in the eyes of the rest of the world? Oh, that's right, intern with CAIR, which according to the Justice Department is not only a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, but an unindicted co-conspirator in a scheme to funnel $12 million to Hamas suicide bombers and their families.

More than a dozen CAIR officials — including its founder and its current executive director — have been named or prosecuted in terrorism investigations. Several have been convicted of felonies.

The same group that claims to be the moderate voice of Muslims in America still refuses to condemn the terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah. CAIR is even suing the Department of Homeland Security to forego complete FBI background checks on thousands of Muslim men from the Middle East and Pakistan who have applied for U.S. citizenship.

A sister organization of CAIR is the Muslim Student Association. A former leader of MSA, who now runs the largest mosque in Nevada, stood up at last month's Democrat debate in Las Vegas.

Again, CNN introduced Khalid Khan as an ordinary Muslim who happened to have a grievance. "I am an American citizen and have been profiled all the time at the airport," he griped. "Since 9/11, hundreds of thousands of Americans have been profiled. And, you know it is like harassment."

But Khan, an immigrant from Pakistan, is no ordinary American citizen. He's president of the Islamic Society of Nevada, formed from the MSA. He also hired a "radical" imam for the mosque, according to terror expert Steve Emerson.

Imam Aslam Abdullah has likened Marines in Iraq to the 9/11 terrorists, and publicly questioned whether videotapes showing Osama bin Laden gloating over the attacks were authentic. According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Khan, who frequently travels on business, had his security access badge revoked by local airport officials in 2004.

CNN and these other debate sponsors must do a better job weeding out these Islamist activists. Or perhaps they don't want to exclude them. Perhaps that's why no anti-jihad hawks are picked to ask questions.

Colombia Pact Rising

The Hemisphere: The U.S.-Peru free trade pact, to be signed Friday, will not just bring our ally closer and assure its prosperity. It also seems to be generating momentum for the more critical trade deal with Colombia.



That's important, because extending free trade with Peru while denying it to Colombia sends a bad message to our 34 southern neighbors that the U.S. isn't all that committed to the region — or reliable as a partner.

Congress achieved something marvelous last Tuesday when the Senate gave a big thumbs up for the Peru pact, approving it 77-18.

Peruvian President Alan Garcia greets Colombian President Alvaro Uribe in Lima on Tuesday, vowing to help his ally win U.S. free trade.

Peruvian President Alan Garcia greets Colombian President Alvaro Uribe in Lima on Tuesday, vowing to help his ally win U.S. free trade.

But it's not a complete victory by any means. The House and Senate have yet to OK the almost identical trade pact for neighboring Colombia, which has been singled out for disapproval by some labor groups. U.S. unions cynically claim to be "concerned" about violence against trade unionists in a nation that's only now emerging from the violence of a long war.

It matters little to them that Colombian trade unionists arrived this week from Colombia to urge passage of the pact that will beef up Colombia's unions. They want to punish an ally to show they still matter. Many obedient Democrats may still be in their pocket.

But two events this week may change that.

First, the captains of American industry stepped forward, urging Congress with one voice to extend the pact to Colombia. "Congress' vote on the U.S.-Colombia (pact) will shape the next decade of America's engagement with our hemisphere," the 19 chief executives wrote in a Dec. 11 letter. It was sponsored by the Emergency Committee for American Trade, representing CEOs from Microsoft, Citibank, McGraw-Hill, GM, Oracle, Intel, Coca-Cola, 3M, Procter & Gamble, Target, Wal-Mart and Exxon Mobil, companies that together employ six million Americans.

Hopefully, that might just focus minds in Congress.

In fact, some of these companies — such as Citibank, Oracle, Target, and Microsoft — have leaders associated with Democratic causes and campaigns.

But it's not just about big business or big labor. As the Office of the U.S Trade Representative has noted, the U.S. now has about $16 billion in trade with Colombia, $6.7 billion of that in exports. More than 8,000 U.S. businesses sell to that country. Those businesses aren't the big boys: 84% are small and midsize firms.

Latin America is a fast-growing market. With businesses of all sizes speaking up for the Colombia pact, change may be in the offing.

Peru is the other helpful factor.

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe made a spectacular state visit to Peru on Dec. 11. Not only did the leader get the red-carpet welcome, he got a big pledge from Peruvian President Alan Garcia to help his old ally get free trade.

"I want to say to everyone, Peruvians and especially to Colombians: This treaty of free trade that Peru has signed with the U.S. will not be complete until Colombia has signed the free trade treaty with the United States," Garcia declared.

Because Garcia is headed to Washington to sign the free trade agreement on Friday, it is likely he will urge congress to sign off on the Colombia pact, too.

It makes sense. The two pacts are about equal, were negotiated at the same time and required the same reforms.

Both nations willingly made the changes because they wanted free trade so badly.

To give one free trade while leaving the other in the cold will not only alienate both, but will send a message to the region that the U.S. is a mercurial partner unworthy of alignment.

Garcia has long favored integrating the region to create a better framework for prosperity.

His support for Colombia, along with the emergence of American business' support for Colombia, hopefully will help seal the deal.

The Fed's Lifeline

Monetary Policy: The Fed giveth, and the Fed taketh away. That's how markets reacted to central bank moves in the last two days to ease fears that a financial crisis is brewing. Too little? Too late? Stay tuned.



With investors clamoring for a more aggressive move, financial markets plunged after what was widely regarded as a disappointing rate cut of 25 basis points on Tuesday.

Then, less than 24 hours later, the markets soared on news the Fed would join other major central banks to address the world's dollar-liquidity crisis. Most of the gains evaporated after oil prices surged, but the market's basic message had been delivered:

If the too-small rate cut was a mistake, the Fed's additional move to prevent a global credit crunch, and possibly recession, was not.

Like others, we were flummoxed by the Fed's decision to trim rates only a quarter-point to 4.25%. It was like administering cold medicine to stop an outbreak of the plague.

We also wondered why the Fed waited a day to announce the new lending tool, by which the Fed will inject billions in dollar-based liquidity into global markets. Hopefully it wasn't desperation.

Using its novel "Term Auction Facility" — a fancy name for letting banks bid in the open market for funds instead of having the stigma of borrowing from the central bank's discount window— the Fed will push upward of $40 billion of short-term liquidity into the world financial system and maybe more.

The Fed will also set up lines of credit to let foreign banks borrow dollars when they need them — thus easing their dollar crunch.

This should do two things: (1) make more money available to lend at capital-constrained banks, and (2) lower the cost of funds. And maybe, just maybe, these moves will keep the world from sliding into a recession.

We don't want to get too bullish about the Fed's move. But it beats doing nothing.

The new auction lending system is a creative response to a potential problem. It shows that the Fed's not sitting on its hands. But we still think the Fed should have been more aggressive on the domestic side by cutting the Fed funds rate a full half-point.

Despite inflation fears, many signs of economic weakness that didn't exist a month ago have emerged, thanks in large part to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. financial and housing markets.

Those who still believe there's a serious inflation threat need to understand that most of our recent price pressures come from just one commodity: oil. After a report Wednesday that U.S. crude stockpiles fell unexpectedly, oil leapt $4.37 a barrel to $94.39.

As for those who fear the Fed's actions will only encourage banks to take more bad risks — what economists call "moral hazard" — we ask: What would they have the central bank do? Let dozens of banks fail, taking billions of deposits with them and turning a still-manageable credit crunch into a full-blown financial crisis?

The answer to us is clear, despite any philosophical objections we might have about government meddling in markets.

The Fed's statement justifying the rate cut gave ample clues that even policymakers are worried. It noted signs that housing's woes are starting to hurt business and consumer spending. Worse still, it said financial markets appear to be "deteriorating." Neither is a recipe for future economic success.

Will the Fed's strategy work? Estimates for fourth-quarter GDP are all over the board, with some even expecting a downturn. For next year, the consensus seems to be centered on growth of 2% or so — not great, but no meltdown.

So far this week, the Fed is batting .500 — a great average for a baseball player but a lousy one for a central bank. To show it's really on the ball, the Fed needs to cut rates again — and soon.

Venezuela accused in Argentina campaign probe

The arrest of four men in Miami could unravel a scandal linking alleged illegal contributions from Venezuelan President Chávez to the new Argentine president.

Argentina President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner greets her Venezuelan counterpart, Hugo Chavez, Tuesday at the presidential palace in Buenos Aires.
PRESIDENCIA DE LA NACION
Argentina President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner greets her Venezuelan counterpart, Hugo Chavez, Tuesday at the presidential palace in Buenos Aires.

Federal prosecutors dropped a bombshell in a federal courtroom in Miami on Wednesday, alleging for the first time that the government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez secretly tried to funnel nearly $1 million in cash to the presidential campaign of newly elected Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

The accusation came during a hasty hearing for four foreign nationals -- including two wealthy South Florida Venezuelans. Each is charged with being unregistered foreign agents for the Venezuelan government.

Their mission from the Chávez government, prosecutors say: to hush up a local Venezuelan man who was caught in August with a suitcase full of campaign cash as he arrived at a Buenos Aires airport with a high-ranking Argentine official. They pressured him not to reveal the source of the cash or its recipient.

''The money was meant for the campaign of Cristina Kirchner,'' Assistant U.S. Attorney Thomas Mulvihill told U.S. Magistrate Robert Dube. ``These defendants were instructed to keep the role of Venezuela in the matter quiet.''

REACTION TO COME

The arrests and allegations are certain to spark major scandals in both Argentina and Venenezuela, where Chávez has been widely accused of using his overflowing petrodollars to spread leftist-populist ideology around Latin America and the Caribbean.

Named in Wednesday's federal complaint: Franklin Duran, 40; Carlos Kauffmann, 35; Moises Maionica, 36, and Rodolfo Edgardo Wanseele Paciello, 40. All have homes in or ties to Miami-Dade County. A fifth suspect, Antonio Jose Canchica Gomez, 37, remains at large. If convicted, they each face 10 years in prison.

Prosecutors said Duran and Kauffmann, to get the cooperation of alleged ''bag man'' Guido Alejandro Antonini Wilson, threatened his children. Both men were Antonini's friends and business partners.

Federal prosecutors had taped conversations among Antonini, Duran and Kauffmann -- one at Jackson's Steakhouse in Fort Lauderdale. Antonini wore a wire for investigators.

Wednesday's arrest was prompted out of fear that Duran and Kauffmann -- both well-heeled Venezuelans with homes in Key Biscayne and Coconut Grove -- would flee in Duran's private jet, Mulvihill said.

`NO EVIDENCE'

Michael Hacker, attorney for Duran and Kauffmann, said his clients did nothing wrong.

''If any crime was committed, it was committed in Argentina,'' Hacker said. ``The government has no evidence they violated any laws. These men have led squeaky-clean lives. Yes, they have money, because they deal with oil.''

Hacker said the defendants had no plan to flee South Florida, but they were deemed a flight risk and denied bail.

In Argentina, Fernández de Kirchner said she would have no comment. Her husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner, has been one of Chávez's closest allies in Latin America. Chávez attended Fernández de Kirchner's inauguration as president on Monday.

In Venezuela, Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro, speaking live on Dando y Dando, a national television program, accused the U.S. government of engaging in a ``political, psychological and media war against the progressive governments of the hemisphere.''

The judicial action against the four men in Miami was a ''desperate effort'' to lend veracity to the ''political and media ambush'' against the Venezuelan and Argentine leaders and ''do damage that they were not able to do at the time [when allegations first surfaced in August] and they will not be able to do,'' Maduro said.

''They have removed their mask,'' he said. ``The hand that was behind [the Antonini case] is now revealed.''

In a statement, Kenneth L. Wainstein, assistant attorney general for national security, called the defendants' actions ``an alleged plot by agents of the Venezuelan government to manipulate an American citizen in Miami in an effort to keep the lid on a burgeoning international scandal.''

Added Miami-based U.S. Attorney Alex Acosta: ``This is not the first time in recent years that we have charged individuals with operating illegally in South Florida as agents of foreign powers, and likely will not be the last.''

RAMPANT SPECULATION

Even before Wednesday's announcement, many opposition leaders in Argentina had speculated that the confiscated money had been meant for supporters of Fernández de Kirchner.

But no evidence surfaced until Wednesday's hearing.

Argentine political analyst Julio Burdman predicted the complaint will cause a stir in Argentina, though the political impact would be muted because it comes well after Fernández de Kirchner's Oct. 28 landslide victory.

''It would have been much stronger if this had happened weeks before,'' Burdman said.

In recent years, the Venezuelan government has purchased billions of dollars in Argentine bonds.

Argentine federal Deputy Adrian Perez, leader of the opposition Civic Coalition's congressional delegation, said Wednesday's news confirmed many Argentines' fears that their government was too close to Venezuela's.

''If this turns out to be true, it is a grave fact,'' Perez said. ``What we're learning is that all these economic and business ties between Argentina and Venezuela were not transparent at all.''

The scandal first emerged Aug. 4, when Antonini and seven others flew in a private chartered Cessna Citation from Venezuela to an airport in Buenos Aires.

Antonini was accompanied by Claudio Uberti, a senior Argentine government official. Uberti later resigned as head of an Argentine government agency that controls toll roads. He had also been the main Argentine negotiator in several trade and investment agreements between Buenos Aires and Caracas.

When the Argentine customs service inspected luggage offloaded from the plane, they found approximately $800,000 in U.S. currency in Antonini's bags. Argentine authorities seized the money. No charges were filed against Antonini, who returned to South Florida.

The conspiracy to cover up the source of the money began shortly after August, prosecutors said.

JOB OF CONVINCING

According to the federal complaint, the defendants asked for a series of meetings with Antonini soon after authorities confiscated the money. Their goal: convince Antonini to conceal the real source of the cash, which was ``a contribution to the political campaign of a candidate in the recent Argentine presidential election of Oct. 28, 2007.''

At one meeting, Duran and Kauffmann told Antonini that various high-ranking Venezuelan government officials, including the office of the vice president of the republic, members of the Intelligence and Preventive Services Directorate and a high-ranking official from the Justice Ministry of Venezuela, were aware of the cash.

As late as Tuesday, some of the defendants had met with Antonini to discuss the creation of false documents to cement the coverup.

U.N. Human Rights Council is little more than a bad joke

T here wasn't much to celebrate on International Human Rights Day earlier this week. There is growing evidence that a recently created United Nations Human Rights Council that many hoped would step up international scrutiny of rights abusers worldwide has turned out to be a fiasco.

So much so that, as I learned in a telephone interview with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., on Wednesday, most Democrats and Republicans -- who cannot agree on almost anything these days -- are supporting a bill that would withhold about $3 million in U.S. annual contributions to the United Nations to protest the council's performance.

''You shouldn't have human rights abusers on a human rights committee, and that's what we have, with countries such as Angola and Cuba,'' Reid told me. He added that ''we have a better than 50-50 chance'' to pass the bill that would cut U.S. funds for the council.

The 47-member council was created in 2006 after several years of discussions to replace the widely discredited U.N. Human Rights Commission, which had turned into a sort of mutual protection club of some of the world's worst dictatorships. But the council is hardly an improvement.

Since its creation, it has spent virtually all its energies in condemning Israel, while failing to issue similar warnings about human rights violations in North Korea, Zimbabwe and dozens of other countries. What's more, the council has closed down its offices to monitor abuses in Cuba and Belarus.

The council has issued 13 condemnations, of which 12 have been against Israel, and one against Burma. Most rights advocates agree that while Israel should be subject to close scrutiny, the council has become a largely one-issue body. And even when it comes to Israel, the council's rulings have failed to include Palestinian acts of terrorism against Israeli civilians in its condemnations.

''We are quite disappointed,'' says Peggy Hicks, of Human Rights Watch, a group that denounces abuses in dozens of countries, including the United States. ``The council has engaged in a very limited agenda and hasn't taken up a number of human rights issues that ought to be addressed.''

There are at least 26 countries that deserve the council's attention, according to Human Rights Watch. They include Afghanistan, Belarus, China, Colombia, Ivory Coast, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Haiti, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Turkmenistan, Uganda, the United States, Uzbekistan and Zimbabwe.

''The council is far worse than the [now defunct] Commission,'' says Hillel Neuer, director of U.N. Watch, a Geneva-based group affiliated with the American Jewish Committee. ``The Commission, despite its many defects, at least had managed to speak out for victims in North Korea, Cuba and other countries.''

Most international human rights groups don't go as far as saying that the council is worse than its predecessor because the new body includes more democracies than the former Commission.

But it still has dozens of members with dubious human rights credentials -- such as China, Cuba and Saudi Arabia -- that trade their positions in other U.N. agencies for seats on the council and then defend one another against outside scrutiny, they say.

The United States is not a member of the council because the Bush administration decided not to seek a seat. U.S. officials say the White House didn't want to legitimize the council, while critics point out that the United States may not have gotten the 96 votes it needed at the General Assembly to become a member in the aftermath of the Abu Ghraib and Guantánamo scandals.

Despite their criticism of the council, Human Rights Watch and other international monitoring groups are still holding out some hope that the U.N. body will redeem itself once its newly created mechanism of ''universal periodic review'' goes into effect in 2008. Under the new system, every U.N. member state has to undergo scrutiny by the council every four years.

My opinion: If the council doesn't start to denounce human rights abuses in China, Cuba, North Korea -- and, yes, at the U.S. Guantánamo base and in Iraq -- when it launches its periodic review mechanism next year, international human rights groups should jointly denounce it as a sham. So far, it has been a joke.

At Last, a Vote!
Iowa's January caucuses finally arrive for a face-weary electorate.

The Iowa caucuses are in earshot, so naturally one's thoughts turn to fairy tales. Joy comes from entering the fairy-tale world only if one chooses to believe. Oz worked only so long as the locals believed the Wizard was real. Which means we're in Iowa now, with Huck, Hillary, Obama, Oprah, Rudy, Mitt and all the political dreams that money and muscle can muster.

Three weeks from today, Jan. 3, while you're watching the FedEx Orange Bowl between Kansas and Virginia Tech, Iowa's most politicized citizens will caucus and vote. When they're done, we'll know whether Mike Huckabee really has become the Wizard of Iowa.

As we all know too well, it's been a long, hard slog. During Mitt Romney's visit to the Journal's offices last month, he told us, with pride, that he'd done 462 events in Iowa and New Hampshire this year. More than a few eyes widened at the thought. Last weekend even Hillary's mom campaigned for her in Iowa, and Oprah was somewhere else in the state for Barack. A few days ago, Bill Clinton was in Ames, where he said that years ago he told Hillary to dump him so she could run for office. "I thought it would be wrong for me to rob her of the chance to be what I thought she should be," the former president said. "She laughed and said, 'First, I love you and, second, I'm not going to run for anything, I'm too hardheaded.' "

You have to ask yourself: No matter how many times Iowans have been down this path, what can they make of it all? What can anyone make of it?

Iowa matters. After nigh a year of magic bus tours through the state by the presidentially ambitious and after the Jan. 3 caucuses finish the most arcane voting game on the planet, two people will have won Iowa and most of the rest will be gagging down their losses. If Huck beats Mitt, Mitt's campaign is an empty husk. If Barack comes a close second to Hillary's dream team (this first-name game will be elaborated on in a moment), then he'll have the Iowa caucus's famous second-fiddle momentum, which carried Iowa second-place finishers George McGovern to the party nomination in 1972 and Jimmy Carter in 1976.

If you were an Iowan, what would be the basis for your vote that frosty night? Would you vote the man, gender, pigment or an issue? Nonstop across nearly the whole of 2007, the candidates and our ever-malleable political "system" have thrown all of these at the American electorate, hoping some of it will stick. For most of the year, Barack Obama has tried to prevent the inevitable Hillary ascension by running as a reasonable, intelligent young man. With the clock running down, Team Obama decided to throw Oprah the length of the field. Who knows, it might work.

Gallup a few days ago reported what its polls say are on people's mind. The war in Iraq remains No. 1, at 36%, with the interest level then dropping by half to 16% for the economy. Immigration, the great GOP catfight, is said to be at only 10% for the general population. A Washington Post poll yesterday put the economy at 44%, the war at 37% and, oh yes, immigration, at 10%.

There is a plausible school of thought in our politics which says that most voters wait until the final week to look out the window, discern what strikes them as important, check out the candidates, press the two pieces--issues and candidates--against the template of their own beliefs, and vote.

This is probably as good a way as any to run a democracy. But politics risks turning to glue if the voters' moment of decision is preceded by nearly 100 weeks of constant campaigning. Like wary Olympic cyclists pedaling side by side around the velodrome, these front-runners aren't going to get out in front of the pack with a strong theme or issue. With a race this long, the whole world could change. Ask the Democrats. They thought they'd ride into the White House aboard one issue--national disaffection over Iraq. That's not going to happen. Now what?

Afraid that a turn in the economy, a terrorist bomb or an October (2008) surprise will turn a commitment way back when into an embarrassment 14 months later, most of the candidates are running campaigns more or less about nothing. Hillary Clinton is especially famous for having no set opinion about anything, other than that it's all George Bush's fault. There was palpable excitement as Fred Thompson's candidacy rumbled down the runway. But now that he's aloft, few can make out what he's about, other than joining most of the other Republican candidates to pistol-whip the Mexicans occasionally. Rudy Giuliani published a piece in The Wall Street Journal Dec. 3, "The Meaning of Fiscal Conservatism," a correct, but careful, tour d'horizon. As an astute friend described the piece, "It was without a galvanizing theme, to put it kindly." The Huckabee Fair Tax and the Thompson voluntary flat tax are more punch-list talking points than a defining, core commitment.

With the issues seen by these long campaigns as mercurial or dangerous, what does one run on for a year, or two years?

Yourself.

In an age in which media and marketing sell everything else as celebrity or self, there is logic in reducing one's campaign to biography. Nearly all these candidates want to be on a first-name basis with the nation. The Washington Post currently has a series running each day on the candidates in which one of the articles is done by the paper's fashion writer ("How He Looks"). Why not? It's a perfect fit for the shape of our politics now.

Voters will play the hand they've been dealt, and at last with Iowa the big moment has arrived. We should all be pumped. But the press reports disinterest and waning enthusiasm for the candidates. Before a single vote is cast, much of the electorate is experiencing issues fatigue and face fatigue. Hillary most of all didn't need this much face time with the voters. No one does.

Let's not do this two-year run again. Here's how: Dump the federal campaign-finance law, which forces candidates to raise millions in $2,300 dribs and drabs. That is why they've been running since last winter. The campaign isn't about us. It's designed as a sales pitch. It's about their fund-raising imperative. The result: Mike Huckabee may win Iowa in large part because he gives people a good laugh.

Not funny.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

To Risk Not Saving a Life: Abortion Ban in Nicaragua and its Societal Implications

  • A born-again Marxist now upholding an ultramontane pedigree, President Daniel Ortega has puzzled both sides of the political spectrum.
  • The Church has taken on an incredibly influential role when it comes to issues of social justice and personal rights.

About a month ago, 22-year-old Olga Reyes was suffering from an ectopic pregnancy in which a fetus develops outside of the uterus, making its survival an impossible outcome. Such a pregnancy also can put the mother in grave danger, as there is a risk of excessive bleeding that can lead, in extreme cases, to death. Unfortunately, this is exactly what occurred in the case of Reyes. If an ectopic pregnancy goes undetected, the only chance to minimize death or injury of the mother is to terminate the pregnancy through an abortion. In most countries—even many of the most conservative ones—abortions are permitted when a mother’s life might be in danger.

Reyes, however, was Nicaraguan, and since November of last year, all forms of abortion (including those in which a mother’s life may be in danger) have been illegal. Because an environment of fear has been created by the Church’s behavior, most Nicaraguan doctors are hesitant to treat cases like that of Reyes’. Her doctors at Bertha Calderon Maternity Hospital refused to intervene, even when an abortion could have potentially saved her life. A little more than a year ago, Reyes would have been alive; the abortion ban was not in effect, and abortions were permitted in extreme circumstances like hers. Since being enacted in November of last year, the abortion ban has left an indelible mark on Nicaraguan society, necessitating an evaluation of the roles of religion, public health, and gender in the country.

Religion
Nearly three-fifths (59 percent) of Nicaragua’s population is Roman Catholic. As a result, the opinions of the Church community are held in the highest of esteem, and Church beliefs are treated as scripture. For instance, a decade ago, there was a good deal of controversy surrounding a Catholic-supported movement to flood the country’s public schools with textbooks produced by the Catholic archdiocese of Managua. Such efforts to influence Nicaragua’s future generations with pro-Catholic textbooks indicated the length to which the Church would go in its efforts to influence the country’s social policies.

The abortion ban, although more prone to receive mass media attention than the use of Catholic textbooks in Nicaragua’s public schools, is, to a certain degree, similar in that it is another example of the strength of the Church’s ongoing power and the Faustian bargain Ortega was prepared to make. In 2006, with legislation related to the abortion ban about to come up in the National Assembly, Nicaraguans were anxiously waiting to see which side of the debate the three main presidential candidates would take. Future President Daniel Ortega (who once declared himself to be an atheist) had recently started attending Catholic services, according to a 2006 article in Pine Magazine. Although he was the most leftist liberal candidate in the race when compared to the two social conservatives against whom he was running, Ortega knew he could not win the general election without attracting the necessary support of at least some of the more conservative Catholics in Nicaragua. As a result, when the movement to enact the ban began prior to the election, Ortega said and did nothing to oppose it. In order for him to win, Ortega undoubtedly (and probably correctly) believed that he would need to cater to some of the more symbolically important forces to be found in Nicaragua, among the Church and its constituents.

Given Ortega’s rapid change of heart on matters of great importance to the party, many former Sandinistas who once were close allies of his, were amazed at what appeared to be Ortega’s opportunistic nature regarding a number of key issues. Having once been an ardent atheist and foe of Cardinal Obando and Church strictures, Ortega now became an active opponent of the right to an abortion and a supporter of Obando and the primacy of the Catholic Church. Yet soon after victory, however, Ortega seemed to switch sides once again, coming out in support of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA). In addition, it should certainly be noted that, at the time of his support of the abortion ban, Ortega also was anxious for the Church to prove forgiving for his own alleged sexual abuse shortcomings regarding his young step-daughter.

Interestingly, some of the leaders of the Catholic Church have used recent technological and scientific break-throughs in medicine to make the claim that a country can be consistent with Catholic principles without ever putting the life of the mother in danger. Henry Romero, a priest, was quoted last month in an Associated Press story saying that “when two lives are in danger, you must try to save both the woman and the child. It’s difficult to say now that it isn’t possible to save both.” Church leaders often cite somewhat questionable interpretations of scientific findings that claim that, because of major improvements in the field, one no longer has to balance the religious anti-abortion message with the idea that a mother’s life must be protected at all costs.

The Church’s Heavy Hand
Yet the problem is that, in certain (admittedly rare) cases, the mother’s life still may be put in jeopardy, even with the remarkable advances in science. Meanwhile, Church leaders like Managua’s current Archbishop Leopoldo Brenes (who led the successful movement to ban all abortions in El Salvador) and its retired Archbishop, Miguel Obando, refuse to admit that therapeutic abortions—abortions that are necessary to save the life of the mother—are necessary. As Brenes told the Washington Post a year ago: “This idea of ‘therapeutic abortion’ was being abused….People were easily getting doctors to say that the abortion was being done to save the mother’s life, when in reality it was a person who just said, ‘I don’t want this child.’” Although, to an extent, he might have been right to some extent, he still has chosen to ignore the more scientifically orthodox statements put forth this October by Human Rights Watch (HRW). In its report on this subject, the organization noted that, no matter how far we have come scientifically, the need for therapeutic abortions never will be entirely eliminated.

For the past 115 years, largely because of religious factors, almost all abortions were banned in Nicaragua (excluding therapeutic abortions, which could have saved Reyes’ life), highlighting the critical role religion has had in Nicaragua for quite some time. Yet the 2006 ban, which even prohibits those abortions that can save a mother’s life when she is in danger, indicates that the Catholic Church has taken on a newer and bolder position in Nicaraguan society and politics. The HRW report on the abortion ban cited the Center of Reproductive Rights’ research, which says that, along with Chile and El Salvador, Nicaragua is one of only three countries in the world with an entire “blanket ban” on abortion. Only in countries where the influence of religion is so great could such a ban be possible. When a protest against the ban was organized in Nicaragua last October, the Catholic Church immediately mobilized more than 3,000 militants to march in the street in support of it. With the Church being able to count on such numbers in so short amount of time, there is no question regarding its influential sway, particularly when contrasted with citizens (of Nicaragua and elsewhere in the region) who have been trying to reverse the ban with few resources to do it.

Although the weight of Nicaragua’s Catholic community has been one of the central factors in putting the ban into effect, it should be noted that not all Catholics in the country support the prescription. In addition to the significant portion of the population opposed to the ban, some Catholics have “switched sides” to now support therapeutic abortions (and, in some cases, other forms of abortion). For example, Catholics for Free Choice in Nicaragua, an organization made up of Nicaraguans who support abortion in certain cases, has mobilized some of the population to protest the ban, as it believes the ban will lead to tens—if not hundreds—of avoidable maternal deaths.

Public Health Aspects
There has been little debate among members of Nicaragua’s medical community regarding the pros and cons of the abortion ban, given the fact that 95 percent of the members of the country’s National Society of Obstetricians believe that, at the very least, therapeutic abortions should be permitted. Yet, given the fact that there is a growing sense of fear of prosecution among Nicaragua’s or even the cancellation of one’s license as a result of malpractice proceedings, even legal pregnancy-related operations have become less likely. For instance, treatments for hemorrhaging women have declined due to a prevalent culture of fear. Doctors simply do not want to get involved in matters relating to difficult pregnancies, as they worry that they may be putting their careers at risk. As Dr. Oscar Flores Mejia of Nicaragua’s National Society of Obstetricians and Gynecologists told the Boston Globe in 2006, after the ban was put in place: “This law is forcing us to be delinquent on our jobs.”

Underground Abortions
Another reason that many of Nicaragua’s obstetricians are so opposed to the ban is the fact that Nicaragua—and Latin America in general—has had a very high rate of unsafe abortions for a long period of time. It is often hard to make a compelling case for a therapeutic abortion, and, as a result, many Latin Americans resort to unsafe methods to eliminate their fetuses. For example, in Chile (where, like Nicaragua, abortion is entirely proscribed), more than 30,000 woman suffer injuries because of unsafe abortions each year. In fact, according to the Alan Guttmacher Institute, Latin America has the world’s highest rate of maternal deaths due to unsafe abortions, with slightly more than one-fifth of all pregnancy-related deaths caused by unsafe abortions. Such “back-alley” abortions often require desperate pregnant woman to use hangers or unsafe medicines to expel the fetus from the womb. Of course, such practices occur mostly in countries where an abortion is illegal or hard to obtain. The World Health Organization, too, has made similar findings regarding the high rate of unsafe abortions in Latin America, advocating the position that something should be done to alleviate the problem. If one adds such a problem to the fact that it has been only a little more than a year since the ban was put into place, there is a growing fear that the abortion policy in Nicaragua could put the country on an even more dangerous road to a continued elevation of unsafe abortions and, more than likely, deaths.

The ban has also brought back to the spotlight the stormy issue of contraception in Latin America. Due to both the influence of the Catholic Church and to the ineffective methods of sex education in the country, it can be very difficult for teenage girls in Nicaragua to receive informational and practical tools necessary to prevent undesired pregnancies. Furthermore, it should be noted that, when young girls (and, for that matter, boys) are taught about sex and pregnancy prevention, they are not necessarily provided with accurate information. According to the previously mentioned Guttmacher Institute report, almost half of all Nicaraguan women have at least one child before they reach the age of twenty. It also states that “36 percent [of sexually active women between the ages of 15 and 19] have an unmet need for effective contraception.” As a result, such studies and reports highlight the fact that aspects of the recent abortion ban are much more than a simple case of domestic policy making; rather, Nicaragua and, to an extent, other Latin American countries, have been unsure of how to responsibly handle pregnancy and maternity issues for decades.

The ban brings back the longstanding debate that many Nicaraguans have had about the pros and cons of abortion and contraception, among other sexual health matters. Given the inadequacies in the government’s education of its citizens regarding the provision of accurate reproductive health information, one must question how eager the country is to repair its image. Although cases like Reyes’ do not occur every day, the Pan American Health Organization reported that, in 2005, there were 397 ectopic pregnancies; given the fact that deaths from such pregnancies can be avoided without an abortion if they are detected early enough, educating Nicaragua’s population is now more important than ever and more urgently needed in a timely manner.

Gender and Women’s Rights
Although not as prominently discussed in the press as the abortion ban’s relationship to religion and public health, the equally critical, if widely ignored matter of women’s rights and gender roles in Nicaraguan society also has been brought to light. In 2002, after an eight-year-old girl was raped and as a result became pregnant, she and her family fought to have an abortion. When Nicaraguan Assemblyman Wilfredo Navarro was asked about the case in the aforementioned Boston Globe article, he responded that “…she should have the baby because that child has rights.” Although one can sympathize with the fact that the Assemblyman wanted to protect the rights of the unborn child, his marked lack of empathy for the rape of a young girl and the problems that it would cause for her and her family has to be noted as an alarming indicator of the state of female rights in the country.

As a male, Navarro is unlikely to have had to deal directly with pregnancy (let alone pregnancy following rape), and if anything, he shows a lack of sensitivity, respect and understanding for the rights of half of Nicaragua’s population. Such attitudes appear to be pervasive among the highest ranks of Nicaragua’s political and religious elites. The abortion ban was motivated largely by the leaders of the Catholic community in the country and in the region, many of whom have never consistently shown much sympathy for the plight of women citizens. The aforementioned Archbishop Brenes never will have to balance the pros and cons of saving his own life versus that of a fetus because pregnancy is simply something with which he will never have to contend. Thus, with the overwhelming majority of the National Assembly composed of males and the leaders of the Catholic Church mostly male, the voices of many Nicaraguan women have been silenced and their opinions on the abortion ban ignored. Even before the total ban came into effect, 50 Nicaraguan women died between 2000 and 2003 from pregnancy-related complications of which they were neither fully aware of, nor told were preventable. Such statistics presumably mean much more to Nicaragua’s women, than the country’s male leaders who have not demonstrated a particularly strong desire to respond to those figures in an effective, appropriate manner.

Gender hierarchies and male leadership issues aside, the total ban on therapeutic abortions has shed light on what HRWcalled in October a violation of “international human rights standards on the right to life, the right to health, the right to non-discrimination, and a number of other established human rights.” Obviously, the only people whom the right to life directly affects in the case of therapeutic abortions—and, for that matter, any abortion—are women. The internationally agreed upon human rights norms that HRWcited in its October report suggest what many objective critics long have known: bans on any sort of abortion that would save a mother’s life are contrary to established legal standards that protect a women’s right to life. In a country and region where there is a tendency for males to dominate politically, economically, and culturally, the ban on therapeutic abortions has put women even lower on the societal totem pole, which shows an alarming disdain for international legal gender questions.

Conclusion
Reyes was not the first victim of the abortion ban. Just after the interdiction was implemented in 2006, Jazmina del Carmen Bojorge died in a similar fashion, as her doctors failed to appropriately treat her when, five months into her pregnancy, she was feverish and suffering from abdominal pain. At the time, Juanita Jiménez of the Women’s Autonomous Movement in Nicaragua pointed out that doctors were scared of the repercussions had they aided Bojorge. Furthermore, women are now nervous about trying to get any sort of treatment for complications during their pregnancies. As a United Nations official told Human Rights Watch, “Women are afraid of seeking treatment. That’s the first step….And doctors are afraid of providing treatment.…And the combination may have caused deaths.”

Bojorge was the first Nicaraguan woman to have drawn significant international media attention, Reyes is just the most recent case, and, unfortunately, there will be more to come unless the powerful combination of the Church and state have a radical change of heart. Petitions to declare the abortion ban unconstitutional have been filed in the Supreme Court, but for now, the chances of reversal are highly unlikely. A reversal would require much more coordination between Nicaragua’s women’s rights activists and international human rights groups than currently exists. Until that day, however, they will continue to live, like few other women in the Western Hemisphere, without even the most rudimentary guarantee of the right to their survival if a pregnancy goes wrong.

EU leaders converge on Lisbon to sign landmark reform treaty

Partial view of the Jeronimo monastery where EU leaders will converge
©AFP - Eric Feferberg

LISBON - EU leaders converge on Lisbon Thursday to sign a landmark treaty which they hope will revitalise the expanded bloc and allow them to refocus their energies on wider issues after years of navel-gazing.

One notable absentee at the morning signing ceremony of heads of state and government and foreign ministers will be British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

A diary clash in London means he will miss the ceremony, at a monastery in the Portuguese capital, and sign only after he arrives in Lisbon at lunchtime, leading to accusations at home of a "semi-detached" attitude to Europe.

The EU flying circus will move on to Brussels on Friday for a summit where the leaders will be hoping to show they are now concentrating on pressing issues such as globalisation, global warming and immigration.

The "Treaty of Lisbon", agreed in October after long and sometimes heated negotiations, was designed to replace the EU constitution which was scuppered by French and Dutch voters in 2005 national referendums.

The EU leaders deem the 250-plus page treaty vital to streamline the functioning of a regional grouping which has ballooned from 15 to 27 nations since 2004 while pushing deep into the former Soviet bloc.

Like the rejected constitution, the treaty includes plans for a European foreign policy supremo and a more permanent president -- former British prime minister Tony Blair has been one name bandied around -- to replace the cumbersome six-month rotating presidency system.

TV crews set up their cameras in the Jeronimo monastery
©AFP - Eric Feferberg

It also cuts the size of the European Parliament and the number of EU decisions which require unanimous support from member states, hence reducing national vetoes.

However it drops all references to the EU flag or anthem, to assuage eurosceptic fears of another step along the slippery slope towards a federal Europe.

Attached to the new treaty is a European charter of fundamental rights which enshrines the rights of dignity, freedoms, equality, solidarity and justice, although Britain and Poland are opting out of making that binding.

At the European Parliament on Wednesday, Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates and the heads of the EU's main institutions signed the charter, but not without the spectre of treaty referendums very noisily arising.

During the ceremony MEPs from the far-left and right chanted "referendum" and attempted to shout down Socrates as he addressed the assembly.

After the Lisbon signing the 27 member states will have a year to ratify the text, if it is to come into force as planned in January 2009.

Many EU governments, including France and the Netherlands, have said there will be no need for national referendums this time around.

The treaty "does not transfer sovereignty to the EU ... and there is no judicial reason to resort to a referendum," Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen argued on Tuesday.

However for those clamouring for national votes on the treaty, the words of Valery Giscard d'Estaing, the father of the abandoned European constitution, ring true.

Far-left and far-right deputies who support a referendum on the Lisbon treaty stage a protest in Strasbourg
©AFP - Frederick Florin

He has said that legal experts had "taken the original draft constitution, blown it apart into separate elements, and have then attached them, one by one, to existing treaties."

Only Ireland is constitutionally bound to put the issue to a vote.

In order to avoid a British referendum, London was granted key policy opt-outs, its cherished "red lines" on foreign policy, labour rights, the common law and the tax and social security systems.

With some leaders sharing flights to keep their carbon footprint down, the summiteers move on to Brussels Friday, keen to get back to the future.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is championing the idea of an expert "reflection group" to study the EU's opportunities and challenges up to 2020-2030, while Britain has helped draw up an EU declaration on globalisation for the EU leaders to adopt.

On the foreign policy front the issues of Kosovo's independence bid and Iran's nuclear programme will top Friday's agenda.

"It's time to draw a line under the institutional debate," one British diplomat said.

Mexico

Richer, more confident, but still looking to the US

When Felipe Calderón, Mexico’s president, sits down this Christmas to eat stuffed turkey and “romeritos”, a typical festive dish made with herbs, dried prawns, potatoes and chilli, the chances are that he will feel a certain degree of accomplishment after his first year in office.

Within the space of nine months, he has managed to contain the threat from Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the left-wing candidate in last year’s closely-fought and controversial election.

Just as surprisingly, perhaps, he and his administration have pushed through three significant reforms. The first, to the public sector’s pension system, came as a bolt from the blue.

The other two, to the tax regime and to the electoral laws, were slower and more complicated. But they confirmed Mr Calderón’s ability to negotiate with Congress – something lacking during the previous administration of Vicente Fox.

Indeed, there is perhaps no clearer proof of how much more relaxed Mr Calderón feels than the fact that for the first time since he came to power last December, he is planning to take a few days off over the Christmas period. How confident should Mr Calderón feel as he faces his second year in power?

On the surface, there are plenty of reasons for optimism. Beyond the success in reaching deals with Congress, public finances have rarely been in better shape. Thanks to policies put in place by Ernesto Zedillo, who presided over the country during and after the tequila crisis at the end of 1994, the budget is balanced.

In 2000, it was still running a budget deficit equivalent to 1.1 per cent of gross domestic product. Net public debt, meanwhile, has fallen consistently and is now just 23 per cent of GDP. Moreover, much of the external debt was swapped for peso-denominated debt during Mr Fox’s administration.

This year, net external debt accounts for roughly 7 per cent of GDP compared with 24 per cent in 1995. “It has all become boring,” says Damian Fraser of UBS in Mexico City. “But that is fine. We love boring.”

Even inflation, which has started to creep up again after it dipped below that of the US for the first time in 2005, still appears to be under control.

Consensus forecasts from the private sector suggest it will finish the year at about 3.85 per cent.

That may be close to the roof of the central bank’s inflation target of 2 per cent to 4 per cent. But it is a long way from the double-digit inflation Mexico had to live with until the end of the 1990s.

Even with Mexico’s more-than-disappointing overall growth over the past few years, this relatively new-found economic stability has helped push the number of families earning between 9,000 and 20,000 pesos a month from just 5m in the 1990s to more than 12m, according to Ernesto Cervera at GEA, a consultancy in Mexico City.

As Guillermo Ortiz, governor of the central bank, told the FT in a recent interview: “Economic stability has made a difference.”

Another positive element is that the government has launched an aggressive infrastructure project next year. Last month, Agustín Carstens, the finance minister, confirmed that the government intends to boost infrastructure spending from about 3.2 per cent of GDP this year to about 5 per cent in 2008.

In practice, says Alejandro Hope, an analyst with GEA, that will mean about $40bn for roads and an additional $7bn for development of about five ports.

“For the first time in many years we might actually run a counter-cyclical fiscal policy,” he says.

Yet to conclude from all this that Mr Calderón’s second year in power is going to be considerably easier than the first would be a big mistake. Mexico’s economic fortunes still depend heavily on those of the US.

More than 70 per cent of the country’s exports go to its northern neighbour and any weakening in US industrial production inevitably spells problems for Mexico.

The problem for Mr Calderón is that economists’ forecasts for the US economy are far from pretty. In fact, they are growing uglier by the day.

In a recent interview with the FT, Mr Carstens said he remained confident Mexico would come out relatively unscathed from events north of the border.

But many economists disagree. Rogelio Ramírez de la O, who last year was tipped to be finance minister had Mr Lopez Obrador won the election, believes Mexico is highly vulnerable.

He calculates, for example, that about 30 per cent of the country’s GDP depends directly on the US through a mixture of exports, remittance flows of about $23bn a year from migrant workers living in the US, and tourism. Moreover, he already sees signs that the economy is starting to suffer.

Just one of many indicators, he argues, is that year-on-year growth in the manufacturing sector has fallen to 8.1 per cent this year from about 17 per cent last year.

“The main reason we haven’t seen a more serious deterioration yet is that the game is only just beginning,” he says.

Another potentially dark cloud is Mr Calderón’s apparent dwindling appetite for addressing the problem of competition – or the lack of it. Mexico’s corporate landscape is dominated by large and powerful companies that, in many cases, have established a stranglehold over strategic sectors of the economy.

Enrique Quintana, an influential columnist with Reforma, one of Mexico’s daily newspapers, is particularly disillusioned – even though he recognises the difficulties involved.

“The issue of monopolies has disappeared from presidential speeches altogether,” he says.

“The risk is that if the government thinks about the political cost of everything it would stop doing what needs doing.”

On the reform side, there could be cause to damp enthusiasm, too.

While most analysts agree that Mr Calderón has delivered far more than anybody expected this year, they also say that the next big reform – that of energy – will prove considerably harder than those that went before.

With oil production falling and Pemex, the country’s state oil company, desperately short of funds for exploration, nobody doubts the need for reform.

However, in Congress there is no consensus on the issue of energy.

Besides, Mr Calderón will need the backing of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the third-largest force in Congress, to make any headway.

That could prove difficult given the party’s string of election results this year and its growing confidence to demand ever greater concessions in return for legislative support.

What will all this mean for Mexico? According to Mr Fraser at UBS, it probably needs a gradualist approach in which the government manages to further its reform agenda but, a little like this year’s tax reform, falls a long way short of what it would have liked. If that turns out to be true, it will doubtless rule out the huge transformations many economists consider necessary to improve significantly Mexico’s competitive edge and put it on a secure path to becoming a truly developed nation.

But most, in the country and outside, would also agree that even this less ambitious route would be a significant advance on the six previous years.

Mexico

Politics: Calderón faces a challenging year ahead

Just over a year ago, the most popular talking point among the chattering classes in Mexico was not how well Felipe Calderón, the country’s recently-elected president, would do in office but how long he would last.

The left, presided over by the swarthy and charismatic Andrés Manuel López Obrador, was insisting that Mr Calderón’s electoral victory in July had been the result of fraud.

In one huge march on the Zócalo, the capital’s main square, Mr López Obrador proclaimed himself Mexico’s “legitimate president” before hundreds of thousands of supporters. He promised to make life impossible for his adversary.

Today, most of those threats have dissipated.

Mr López Obrador has all but disappeared from the political scene, Mr Calderón’s popularity ratings are at a more-than-respectable 60 per cent and his administration has pushed through three significant reforms in less than 12 months – considerably more than the previous government in six years.

“Calderón has risen far above expectations,” admits Rogelio Ramirez de la O, an economist and a favourite for the post of finance minister had Mr López Obrador emerged victorious.

Much of the success is the result of Mr Calderón’s decision, barely a week into his presidency, to declare war on organised crime.

In recent years, partly as a result of the US crackdown on supply routes through the Caribbean, Mexico has become an important transit country for cocaine and other narcotics.

But the drugs trade has also brought rising levels of violence as the various cartels fight for control of the business. As Mr Calderón said recently: “The biggest threat to the country’s future is insecurity and organised crime.”

Against that backdrop, his decision to send thousands of police and members of the armed forces to win back territory controlled by the cartels went down well with a population feeling vulnerable and under attack.

The other element that helped Mr Calderón to consolidate power during his first year is the left’s inability to capitalise and build on the strong electoral showing of last year.

While Mr López Obrador’s Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) is now the second-biggest force in Congress, it has been almost entirely excluded by Mr Calderón’s National Action Party (PAN) and the Insitutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the third-biggest congressional force.

As for Mr López Obrador, an exhaustive tour of the country’s municipalities has barely received any media coverage.

The tour served only to isolate the former candidate from mainstream politics, making Mr López Obrador “an exile in the wilderness”, says Alejandro Hope, a political analyst at GEA, a consultancy in Mexico City.

Indeed, some political analysts believe Mr Calderón’s successes have been so great during his first 12 months in office that even his defeats have turned into victories.

In elections for governor in the southern state of Tabasco, victory for the PRI over the PAN provided sufficient goodwill among the party’s rank and file to support Mr Calderón’s tax reform in Congress.

“Without that victory it is doubtful whether the fiscal reform would have survived as it did,” says Jorge Zepeda, a political analyst in Mexico City.

In spite of Mr Calderón’s unexpected success, Mr Hope and others believe the coming 12 months may be a different story.

One reason, argues Mr Hope, is simply political wear and tear. The difficulty of producing clear results in the war against drugs combined with the difficulties of sustaining high popularity levels in office have already begun to show in the polls.

According to GEA, Mr Calderón’s popularity has declined from 69 per cent in June to 60 per cent today. “These are still good numbers but the downward trend is clear,” says Mr Hope.

Dan Lund, a political analyst in Mexico City, goes further.

He argues that apart from the war against drugs, Mr Calderón has no defined political agenda beyond trying to increase his party’s share of power in the 2009 mid-term congressional elections.

Meanwhile, economic growth has been disappointing and the impediments to boosting that growth, such as Mexico’s powerful business monopolies, have remained in place.

“Calderón has not taken any difficult decisions on transforming Mexico,” says Mr Lund.

The second reason the next 12 months could prove more difficult is that Mr Calderón will almost certainly have to take on the delicate issue of energy reform over which there is much less political consensus than on the reforms passed this year.

Oil revenue has risen in importance in recent years and now represents almost 40 per cent of total government income.

Yet production is falling because of lack of exploration investment at Pemex, the state oil monopoly, and because of the constitutional prohibition on joint-association contracts with private companies.

It is no secret that Mr Calderón would like to give Pemex greater flexibility to involve private companies in the risk-sharing process but he needs the support of the PRI to do so.

But the PRI has strung together a series of election victories this year that have increased its confidence in raising demands in return for co-operation on structural reform.

The overall result will almost certainly be a difficult year ahead for Mr Calderón and his team.

As Mr Hope puts it: “The honeymoon is definitely over.”

Containment in Their Shanty Towns is not a Solution: Constructive Engagement and not a Face-off between Gangs and New Jamaican Prime Minister is Needed

    • Jamaica should be a paradise not just for tourists, but also for day-to-day citizens trying to live out their lives

    • London’s behavior towards its former colony based on deporting Jamaican criminals back to overcrowded Kingston jails does not do the job

    • How much of the violence in Jamaica is gang-related and how much is politically-motivated?

    • Jamaica does not need “chameleon” politics; it needs leadership

After three months in power, Jamaican Prime Minister Orette Bruce Golding has his work cut out for him regarding national security issues, and the time for action is at hand. The proliferation of gang warfare is a growing cancer on the island, which, combined with corruption, political violence and common crime, creates a deadly pathological social cocktail that inevitably will prevent the nation from achieving its rightful place as a Caribbean leader. If some dramatic anti-crime and corruption program is not implemented in short order, the island’s stature will undoubtedly deteriorate, leaving regional competitor Trinidad-Tobago in a much more favorable status within the Caribbean Community (Caricom) and the local tourist industry suffering from grievous injury. More and more, Jamaica is being alluded to for its punishing problems with crime and not as an island in the sun. The two factors simply cannot coexist.

Past Jamaican governments have been successful at confining the gang problem to ghettos and shantytowns. This, however, does not mean that a solution had been found; it simply means that it was made to seem invisible, going mostly unseen by the well-off Jamaicans and, most importantly, by the thousands of tourists that pour into the island annually. Tourism is a critical part of the country’s economy; Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett recently declared to the Jamaican American Chamber of Commerce that in 2006, the island attracted three million visitors and “cleared” $2 billion in revenue.

This is where the situation gets complicated; Kingston has attempted a policy of “containment” vis-à-vis its gangs, both regarding a very limited number of political crimes as well as the action of much more common apolitical street gangs, making their leaders de facto chieftains of skidding neighborhoods and tattered communities, as long as they do not hassle the tourists. The situation is slowly worsening, and while gang rumbles have not saturated the island’s tourist resorts (which could very well prove disastrous to the industry in the very near future) they are apparently unstoppable. Solving this growing epidemic will be Golding’s critical mission for his term in office. Jamaica may be a Caribbean paradise, but even in paradise there are deadly snakes and never has a potential victim been more vulnerable.

Golding Takes Charge
Bruce Golding ended the 18 years of rule by the People’s National Party (PNP) and by becoming Jamaica’s prime minister after being sworn in several months ago. He has been labeled a “chameleon” because of his shifting political ideology during the late 1990s. Until 1995, Golding was an important figure in the Jamaica Labor Party (JLP), which was then controlled by Edward Seaga. Disagreements with Seaga prompted Golding to leave the JLP to form his own party, the National Democratic Movement (NDM). Golding’s aim was to have a third party as an alternative to Jamaica’s traditional two-party system and as a personal vehicle for his political ambitions. However, the NDM failed to gain what he thought of as the necessary popularity and Golding left the party that he had helped found and returned to the JLP in 2002.

It seems Golding’s most recent change of heart proved the right one for his own political ambitions as he did eventually win the seat of Prime Minister. Furthermore, the JLP managed to achieve a slight legislative majority in the elections by gaining 33 seats in the 60-seat House of Representatives. The island’s traditional ruling party, the PNP gained the other 27.

Among the members of Golding’s 18-seat Cabinet are Dorothy Lightbourne, attorney-general and minister of justice, and Derrick Smith, minister of national security. Golding himself will hold the minister of defense position. The previous government had a 14-member Cabinet, and there has been persistent criticism that Golding is unnecessarily and expensively growing the government, including appointing ministers without portfolio.

According to the Caribbean Media Corporation (CMC), in one of his first decisions as prime minister, Golding, responding to various small caliber accusations involving various forays of complicity involving the country’s police and constabulary, “called for the establishment of a single independent body that will investigate all cases of abuse and unlawful conduct by members of the security forces in Jamaica.”

The Jamaican Constabulary Force (JCF)
When he declared the necessity of creating an oversight institution for Jamaica’s security forces, Golding declared that “the government will do everything possible to strengthen and support the police in combating crime and in the lawful execution of their duties. However, this cannot be at the expense of the constitutional rights of the people.” It is unclear if such statements prompted the resignation on October 10 of Police Commissioner Lucius Thomas (as well as the head of the Jamaican Defense Forces, Rear Admiral Hardley Lewin). Golding accepted the resignation of both officers, even though Thomas gave no reason for his decision.

The magnitude of the problem is illustrated by events like that of June of this year when, in an effort to more effectively monitor crime on the island, the Jamaican government hired the British-based company Mason Communications Ltd. to install closed-circuit TV cameras at strategic spots across the island. Then Security Minister Peter Phillips said the cameras would be installed both in high-crime areas such as rural Clarendon parish, as well as the relatively crime-free resort cities of Montego Bay and Ocho Rios along the north coast. So far, it is unclear if the cameras have proven entirely effective in thwarting crime.

The reality of the situation is that the JCF is ill-equipped to handle the rising wave of violence. In 2005, the Jamaican police called for a wage increase, arguing that their monthly salary of $415 for a starting officer was not worth the risks they took daily. In addition, the badge of a JCF constable does not inspire any great amount of respect among gangs, not even enough to avoid routine attacks against the force. For example, in December 2006, a group of constables were on patrol in a vehicle in the community of Salt Spring. Their vehicle was shot at by unidentified gunmen, wounding three policemen. Due to attacks such as this one, the government has resorted to dispatching the Jamaican defense force as part of internal security operations, along with the regular police.

Don’t Hurt the Tourists

At the beginning of the year, as violence spread throughout the island, particularly in St. James Parish, the government made the decision to regularly deploy troops as well as police officers to a number of locations, including St. James, home of the world-renowned Montego Bay resort, which reportedly receives over one million visitors a year and is traditionally Jamaica’s most popular tourist destination. The deployment followed a January 2007 shootout in Montego Bay between police officers and gang members that left five dead. In addition, St. James Parish was one of the most violent areas in Jamaica during 2006, with a record 178 homicides, including the unsolved murder of an Australian national who was found slain in his hotel room at the resort.

It is evident that Kingston is very concerned over protecting its lucrative tourism industry, even if this means leaving neighborhood ghettos at the mercy of high levels of violence, as these areas do not receive the police attention they otherwise would deserve. Tourist resorts and communities populated by well-off Jamaicans are traditionally the areas that feature strong security. If Golding is true to his word about combating crime in Jamaica, he knows very well where the criminals are—not in the resorts but in the shanty towns. Sending security forces to protect tourists does not protect the general Jamaican population that Golding was elected to serve.

Gang Warfare or Political Violence?
The Western part of the capital city of Kingston, including neighborhoods like Trenchtown, have experienced the most violence of the entire island. Statistics indicate that in 2005 there were 1,671 homicides in Jamaica, an island of 2.8 million. The JCF says that overall homicides this year are up 12% and they are up 9% compared to last year. Of course, these statistics only reflect the crimes that are actually reported to the JCF, one can only imagine how much violence occurs that is not reported, and therefore not counted in statistics. A September 12 Associated Press article by Ben Fox explains that the “police estimate that about half the killings involve Jamaica’s numerous gangs. A small number are thought to be attacks and counterattacks by supporters of the country’s two main political factions […] in the late 1970s and 1980s politicians encouraged and some say armed Kingston street gangs to intimidate opponents and rustle up votes. Hundreds of people were killed as a result.”

Political violence is a huge overlapping issue: as early as July of this year, as the country was looking forward to the elections, there were a number of incidents in the community of Mountain View Avenue. One of these included shots fired at Joan Gordon-Welby the JLP candidate to the area. In a separate incident, Sanjay Ebanks, campaign manager for Welby, died of two gunshot wounds in Kingston’s St. Andrew South Eastern district.

Later, in September, there were widespread attacks throughout the island that claimed a number of lives. According to reports, in one attack, four people were shot in Georges Valley. Another three people were murdered in the neighborhood of Mountain View Avenue in Kingston. The violence prompted a meeting between the public ombudsman Bishop Herro Blair and electoral officials; however the voting went on as planned.

Police blame much of the island’s gun violence on street gangs who fight for control of the lucrative drug and extortion trade. The island is a major transshipment point for South American drugs. In 2004, there were a number of gun fights across Spanish Town, particularly after gang leader Oliver Smith was killed by unknown gunmen. The next year was a particularly bloody one for Jamaica; in May of that year, the violence became so widespread that business owners closed their shops for an afternoon across Kingston as a way to protest the government’s ineffectiveness in controlling gang fights. In June 2007, the Jamaican police declared that a dispute between rival gangs led to the death of George Grant. Apparently, the man was tortured (fish hooks were found in his mouth), before he was beheaded, with his head being found in a bag.

It’s Not Always Good to be Back Home
What to do with the Jamaican deportees that are sent back to the island has been a matter of grave concern to policymakers in Kingston for a long time. In June 2006, then-National Security Minister Stephen Philipps traveled to London to discuss with British authorities about the fate of Jamaican deportees being sent from the U.K. to its former colony. Philipps declared “among the issues that were raised by us included ways in assisting the re-induction of persons being deported into Jamaican society, where we do training programs and the like.”

According to a December 6, 2006 report published by the CMC, “the majority of the 5,101 Caribbean nationals sent back to the region between the period 1 October 2005 and 22 October 2006 had criminal convictions. Jamaica received 1,364 deportees, Haiti 743, Trinidad & Tobago 298 and Guyana 244.” Grenada’s ambassador to Washington, Denis Antoine, was quoted as saying “you [the U.S.] get trained people, but you send back unwanted criminal deportees.” He then added “we are saying that it hurts, because it hurts. Their intention is not to hurt us, we hope, but then if you are our friends and neighbors, please pay attention to it, that’s what we are asking.” Another December 2006 report by the CMC explains that, according to U.S. Department of Homeland Security, more than 36,000 persons were deported to the Caribbean between 1998 and 2005; some 11,455 were sent to Jamaica.

Showing the other side of the coin regarding Kingston’s interest in the scope of the deportee efforts, former minister Philipps was quoted, in a March 2007 New York Times article, as saying “we have intelligence that many of these criminal deportees come back and are at the center of some of the criminal organizations here, […] in an ideal world, I wouldn’t accept any deportee […] but I acknowledge our obligations under international law.’”

Criminal offenses among the deportees are based on drug-related charges and bank robbery; however it is unclear how big the correlation is between the rise in crime in Jamaica and the influx of deportees. An April 2007 article by cracking investigative journalist Rory Carroll in the influential British daily The Guardian, explains that “many of the drug offenders are not gangsters, but ‘mules,’ such as Pauline Jackson, 45, a large, softly-spoken mother of five from a Kingston slum who was offered £2,500 to smuggle 41 cocaine pellets through Gatwick.”

Gang violence was instigated in the 1970s and 1980s by the islands’ political parties. Increased crime statistics in recent years may simply have to do with the government’s inability to train its security forces and give them the necessary equipment to control gangs.

If anything, the Jamaican deportees are individuals who put yet another burden on an island known for having a weak economy, and being overly dependent on tourism. In addition, it creates strain and resentment from the part of Jamaican authorities who are receiving these “unwanted guests” from nations that they consider their friends, meaning the U.S. and the U.K. At a time when Jamaica has become a hub for the transshipment of illegal South American drugs, Washington is not following a coherent policy. By forcibly sending back individuals who, due to the poverty in the island, could eventually join some gang or become involved in drug trade as ‘mules,’ including formerly incarcerated Jamaicans found guilty in the U.S. and who have served hard time in the U.S. jails, Washington is guaranteeing that there will be a new generation of sophisticated criminals who will be able to take over the leadership of local Jamaican gangs.

Common Friends?
In order to assume his new position and duties, Golding took an oath before Sir Kenneth Hall, Governor General of Jamaica. Six thousand people attended the ceremony, many from overseas, which exemplifies Jamaica’s continued relationship with the United Kingdom. The Governor General is the representative of the British monarch to Jamaica and holds reserve powers in case of emergency. Jamaica’s relationship to the United Kingdom is that of two states that to an extent share a common history. For example, both are members of the Commonwealth of nations.

In the spirit of these historical ties, London has provided Kingston with considerable aid on security matters. In June, the Jamaican government hired Justin Felice, formerly of the Northern Ireland Police Service, to lead an anti-corruption unit in the Jamaican Constabulary Forces. Among other Britons taken on to provide leadership and skills to the Jamaican security forces is Mark Shields, a famed former Scotland Yard detective.

However, there is another side to London’s security issues vis-à-vis Jamaica, shared by other countries like the U.S. and Canada. This issue is the deportation of Jamaican criminals from local communities abroad (particularly the U.K., U.S. and Canada) back to the island. A November 23, 2007 article in the Canadian daily The Toronto Star explains that more than 33,000 deportees have been returned to Jamaica in the past fifteen years. The article by Sandro Contenta explains that “between 2001 and 2004, Jamaica absorbed 2,700 deportees a year from the U.S., Britain and Canada - a huge influx, given that Jamaica’s entire prison population in 2003 was only 4,744.” The article provides a good analysis on the conflicting reports about who really are the deportees. The common perception is that the deportees are criminals who, after they are returned to the island, continue their illicit activities.

Other analysts argue that only a fraction of deportees are hardened criminals, and others are merely mal-adjusted individuals who are jolted both from being forced to be suddenly separated from their families, as well as being forced to return to their native country where they are often stigmatized as criminals. Contenta explains that “the average age of deportees was 35, placing them in an age group less likely to re-offend. And 81 per cent of people deported to Jamaica were convicted of non-violent crimes, including immigration-related matters, fraud and drugs.”

An October 27 Press Association Newsfile article reports that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is seeking to draft a new policy regarding the thousands of expatriate prisoners in the U.K. prisons, including a large number of Jamaican nationals. The article explains that “many of the Jamaican inmates are female drug “mules,” caught smuggling illegal substances into Britain. Any repatriation deals could therefore have a significant impact on the local drug market, by potentially encouraging smugglers to target the UK in the knowledge that mules could be sent straight home.” Director of the Howard League for Penal Reform Frances Crook, said “there should be an element of discretion when repatriation is considered […] Many of these couriers, particularly women, were forced into smuggling drugs by Jamaican gangs and are now housed in jails thousands of miles from their families and loved ones. An agreement with Jamaica would hopefully see many of them returned to that country, something that most would welcome.” There are around 1,400 Jamaican prisoners currently in U.K. cells.

Declarations vs. Results
Prime Minister Golding has said that “corruption in Jamaica is much too easy. It is too risk-free […] public officials will be impeached and removed from office if they are found guilty of corruption.” He has also told the AP that he: “[gets] angry sometimes when I look at the capacity that we have, the resources that we have, the opportunities that we have had and how little use we have made of them.”

Jamaica cannot reach its potential unless its numerous security issues have been solved, not simply contained. Gang violence, whether politically motivated or, more likely drug related, is part of the daily life that has, for a long time, been successfully contained to poor neighborhoods of the island, far from the tourist beaches and resorts. The containment wall is now being battered down and the tongues of violence are reaching the tourists and engulfing them, forcing the Jamaican government to recognize that it has a nationwide gang problem of immense implications for the nation’s political and economic consequences. Jamaica’s new Prime Minister, Bruce Golding has the position to transform Jamaica into a paradise, not just for tourists but for ordinary Jamaicans as well. Unfortunately, this is not an automatic process.

The Nuclear Taboo, by Thomas C. Schelling

The most spectacular event of the past half century is one that did not occur. We have enjoyed 60 years without nuclear weapons exploded in anger.

What a stunning achievement—or, if not achievement, what stunning good fortune. In 1960, the British novelist C. P. Snow said on the front page of The New York Times that unless the nuclear powers drastically reduced their armaments, thermonuclear warfare within the decade was a “mathematical certainty.” Nobody appeared to think of Snow’s statement as extravagant.

We now have that “mathematical certainty” compounded more than four times, and no nuclear war. Can we make it through another half-a-dozen decades?

The first time that nuclear weapons might have been used after World War II was in 1950. U.S. and South Korean forces had retreated to a perimeter at the southern town of Pusan, and it was not clear that they could either hold out or evacuate. The question of nuclear defense arose, and the British Prime Minister, Clement Attlee, flew to Washington with the announced purpose of persuading President Truman not to let nuclear weapons be used. The successful landing at Inchon removed the danger, and we cannot know what might have happened if Inchon had failed. Nuclear weapons again went unused upon the disastrous assault by Chinese troops in the north of Korea.

Succeeding Truman, President Eisenhower saw NATO facing a hugely superior military adversary, and elevated nuclear weapons from last resort to first resort. Shortly after inauguration, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles said, in the National Security Council, “Somehow or other we must manage to remove the taboo from the use of these weapons.” A few weeks later, the President approved the following statement: “In the event of hostilities, the United States will consider nuclear weapons to be as available for use as other munitions.” Six months later, the U.S. position was that nuclear weapons “must now be treated as in fact having become conventional.”

The Johnson administration shows a striking contrast. In September 1964, Johnson said publicly, “Make no mistake, there is no such thing as a conventional nuclear weapon. For 19 peril-filled years no nation has loosed the atom against another. To do so now is a political decision of the highest order.”

I interpret this as Johnson’s belief that 19 years without nuclear war was an investment to be treasured.

Nixon did not use nuclear weapons in Vietnam.

Golda Meir, Israeli prime minister in 1973, did not authorize nuclear weapons against Egyptian armies that had successfully crossed the Suez Canal and were perfect targets for nuclear attack, there being no civilians in the vicinity.

Margaret Thatcher did not consider nuclear weapons against naval vessels in defending the Falkland Islands against Argentina.

And most astonishingly, the Soviet Union fought a long, bloody, and disastrous war in Afghanistan without recourse to nuclear weapons. Even the Russians were awed, apparently, by Johnson’s 19 “peril-filled years,” which by then had stretched to four decades.

Those 19 years have stretched to 60. The taboo that Ike appeared to denigrate, or pretended to denigrate, but that awed President Johnson a decade later, has become a powerful tradition of nearly universal recognition.

An immediate question is whether we can expect Indian and Pakistani leaders to be adequately in awe of the weapons they now both possess. There are two helpful possibilities. One is that they share the inhibition—appreciate the taboo—that I have been discussing. The other is that they will recognize, as the United States and the Soviet Union did, that the prospect of nuclear retaliation makes any initiation of nuclear war nearly unthinkable. The risk is that one or the other may confront the kind of military emergency that invites some limited experiment with the weapons, and there is no history to tell us, or to tell them, what happens next.

The next threats from nuclear weapons may emerge from Iran, North Korea, or possibly some terrorist bodies. Is there any hope that they will have absorbed the nearly universal inhibition against the use of nuclear weapons, or will at least be inhibited by the recognition that the taboo enjoys widespread acclaim?

Part of the answer will depend on whether the United States recognizes that inhibition, and especially on whether the United States recognizes it as an asset to be cherished, enhanced, and protected, or, like John Foster Dulles in Eisenhower’s cabinet, believes that “somehow or other we must manage to remove the taboo from the use of these weapons.”

There is much discussion these days of whether or not “deterrence” has had its day and no longer has much of a role in America’s security. There is no Soviet Union to deter; the Russians are more worried about Chechnya than about the United States; the Chinese seem no more interested in military risks over Taiwan than Khrushchev really was over Berlin; and terrorists can’t be deterred anyway—we don’t know what they value that we might threaten, or who or where they are.

I expect that we may come to a new respect for “deterrence.” If Iran should, despite every diplomatic effort to prevent it, acquire a few nuclear weapons, we may discover again what it is like to be the deterred one, not the one doing the deterring (I consider us—NATO—as having been deterred from intervening in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968.). I also consider it crucial that Iran learn to think, if it hasn’t already learned to think, in terms of deterrence.

What else can Iran accomplish, except possibly the destruction of its own system, with a few nuclear warheads? Nuclear warheads should be too precious to give away or to sell, too precious to “waste” killing people when they could, held in reserve, make the United States, or Russia, or any other nation, hesitant to consider military action. What nuclear weapons have been used for, effectively, for 60 years has neither been on the battlefield nor on populations; they have been used for influence.

A potential serious difference between Iran’s nuclear thinking and that of India and Pakistan is that for many decades, Indians and Pakistanis have been participating in an international nuclear dialogue—at the Aspen Institute, at the Institute for Strategic Studies in London, at think tanks and conferences around the world. I never saw an Iranian, let alone a North Korean. Indians and Pakistanis, of course, read and comprehend English fluently and have had access to publications in English from institutes and publishing houses in Sweden, Italy, Germany and, of course, England and America. I believe a way must be found to make some Iranian participation in nuclear discourse legitimate.

What about terrorists? Any organization that gets enough fissile material to make a bomb will require at least six, probably more, highly qualified scientists and numerous machinists and technologists, working in seclusion away from families and occupations for at least weeks, maybe months, with nothing much to talk about except what the “bomb” might be used for, by whom. They are likely to feel justified, by their contribution, to have some claim in deciding the use of the nuclear device (The British Parliament in 1950 considered itself, as a partner in the development of the atomic bomb, qualified to advise Truman on possible use of the bomb in Korea.).

They will discover, over weeks of arguing, that the most effective use of the bomb, from a terrorist perspective, will be for influence. Possessing a nuclear device, if they can demonstrate possession—and I believe they can, if they have it, without detonating it—will give them something of the status of a nation. Threatening to use it against military targets, and keeping it intact if the threat is successful, may appeal to them more than expending it in a destructive act. Even terrorists may consider destroying large numbers of people and structures less satisfying than keeping a major nation at bay.

The United States was slow to learn, but eventually learned (in 1961), that nuclear warheads demand exceptionally secure custody—against accident, mischief, theft, sabotage, or a “Strangelove-like” unauthorized attack. There is always the dilemma: Reward violators of the Nonproliferation Treaty by offering the technology to keep the warheads secure? At least we can try to educate the new members of the nuclear club about what we didn’t appreciate for our first 15 years.

I know of no argument in favor of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which the U.S. Senate rejected in 1999, more powerful than the potential of that treaty to enhance the nearly universal revulsion against nuclear weapons. The symbolic effect of some 170 nations ratifying the Treaty, which is nominally only about testing, should add to the convention that nuclear weapons are not to be used, and that any nation that does use nuclear weapons will be judged the violator of a hard-earned tradition of non-use. When the Treaty is again before the Senate, as I hope it will be, this major benefit should not go unrecognized.

The most critical question about nuclear weapons for the United States Government under George W. Bush or under anyone else is whether the widespread taboo against nuclear weapons, and its inhibition on their use, is in our favor or against us. If it is in our interest, as I believe is obvious, advertising our continued dependence on nuclear weapons and our need for new nuclear capabilities and probably new nuclear tests—let alone ever using them against an enemy—has to be weighed against the corrosive effect on a nearly universal attitude that has been cultivated through universal abstinence for over 60 years.

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About the author

Thomas C. Schelling is Co-Recipient of the 2005 Nobel Prize in Economics. He is Distinguished University Professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy.

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Images in this article

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Air Force file photo of the first launch of a Trident missile on January 18, 1977 at Cape Canaveral, Florida.

DOD File Photo provided by the Naval Historical Center, Washington, D.C. Released to public.

Photo of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki on August 9, 1945, taken from one of the B-29 Superfortresses used in the attack.

Chile - Venezuela: The Hidden Weakness of a Strong Economy

Tzu-kung said, ‘If you had a piece of beautiful jade here, would you put it away safely in a box, or would you try to sell it for a good price?’ The Master said, ‘Of course I would sell it. Of course I would sell it. All I am waiting for is the right offer.’ Confucius, Analects, Book IX, 13.

Here is a quiz for you: Which South American nation:

a) depends on one single product for the majority of its exports?
b) derives 35% of its total GDP from said product?
c) has relied on the sharp rise in world market prices for its product to fuel growth?
d) has not added significantly to its international currency reserves in the period?
e) is often lauded as the LatAm model economy by world peers?
f) may possibly be worried about forward macro effects of the recent drop of over 20% in world market prices for its main product?

If you guessed Venezuela then began to doubt your choice, this analyst would not be at all surprised. The answer is Chile, and the major product in question is copper.

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Most people with interest in hard commodities know that Chile is the world’s number one copper producing nation, and it is also owner of the world’s biggest copper producer in state-run Codelco. What most people do not realize is the growing dependence Chile has on commodity growth due to the rise in price of copper in this decade. Copper has always been central to Chile’s economy of course, but in recent times this dependence seems to have become a veritable addiction. While revisiting the Chilean macroeconomic situation recently, we were immediately struck by the similarity between the positions of Chile and Venezuela, and began to wonder why Venezuela was the recipient of such bad press for its virtual petroleum monoculture economy while the growing dependence Chile has on copper was all but ignored by otherwise astute economists.

Firstly, some basic parameters. With a population of 15 million, Chile has a little over half the citizens of Venezuela. Therefore when we see the 2006 GDP figures for Chile at U$205Bn and Venezuela at U$176Bn (both purchasing power parity figures from the respective central banks) and GDP per capita at around U$9000 for Chile and U$6100 for Venezuela, it makes sense that Chile is classed the “richer” of the two countries. The general perception is that growth in Chile is of the “steady and sustainable” type, which is based on exports, direct foreign investment and demand from a developed internal economy.

As the above chart shows, GDP growth has been fluctuating per quarter around this 5% level, but has been far below that of Venezuela. Venezuela’s well-publicized growth has come almost entirely from the rise in oil prices, of course. But Chile’s growth has been largely dependent on copper in the same period, as the following chart begins to demonstrate.

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Since 2004, the export mix from Chile has changed substantially. Previously, copper made up between 35% and 40% of total exports by revenue, but this figure has ballooned to 60% in recent months. The correlation between this rise and the spot price of copper is fairly straightforward.

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And as the next graph further illustrates, copper is the clear driving force behind the rise in export revenues.

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According to central bank figures, Chile obtains 35% of GDP from copper and copper alone, revenue coming from the state run Codelco and from tax revenues from private mining companies. Taxes on mining are comparatively low in Chile, with the base rate set at 17%. Added to this is a 35% repatriation tax on earnings for foreign mining companies as well as royalty payments that range between 0.5% and 5% of gross revenues depending on amount of production per company, tax regime and spot commodity prices. However the state also offers significant tax breaks to foreign companies in the form of asset depreciation credits. In recent times, Chile has also tightened up tax loopholes that previously allowed foreign miners to avoid the full burdens via transfer pricing to parent companies abroad.

Coincidentally, according to the Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV), 35% of Venezuela’s GDP also comes via its main export, that of oil. In the case of Venezuela, around 80% of revenues come via its state-run oil company, PdVSA, with around 20% currently made by private (and mostly foreign) oil companies. In the next chart we see the total percentage of export revenues that come via oil in Venezuela and copper in Chile, and although Venezuela’s dependence is clearly stronger, copper in Chile is playing catch-up. To recap, 35% of Chile’s GDP and 67% of its exports currently come from copper. 35% of Venezuela’s GDP and 88% of its exports come from oil. But despite this, the perception is that Chile has a far more diversified economy.

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Exports alone do not tell the full macro story, of course. We shall therefore take a look at some other macro indicators to measure the two countries. When it comes to inflation, Chile runs headline figures that beat Venezuela easily. Although Chile’s inflation rate has recently crept up from under 3% to the present 3.7%, it is still well below the Venezuelan rate that has fluctuated between 15% and 20% this year. However the following chart demonstrates that, surprisingly, the real world effects of inflation have been more severe in Chile than in Venezuela. The chart compares salary growth of the two nations with inflation via the consumer price indices. As we can see, Salaries have kept up with and in fact beaten the price rises in Venezuela, but in Chile’s case the reverse is true.

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Venezuela has also made the best progress in combating unemployment. The next chart shows the seasonally unadjusted rates for both countries, and Venezuela has managed to cut unemployment in half since the dog days of the PdVSA strike in 2003. Chile has also made progress on this score, but the progress has been more moderate.

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But on the subject of international reserves, there is no contest. Venezuela has managed to grow its safety cushion of international reserves significantly in this period, and even allowing for the U$5Bn withdrawn from the system by President Hugo Chávez in early 2007 to fund social programs, Venezuelan reserves have more than doubled since January 2003. On the other hand, Chilean reserves have stayed stubbornly at the same level in all this time, despite the boom in copper prices that has been every bit as impressive as oil prices. However, for whatever reason Chilean international reserves never seem to command the column inches of the Venezuelan figures. This analyst remembers the shock and gloom stories from publications a reputable as the London Financial Times in May 2007, bemoaning the drop in Venezuelan reserves to U$24Bn and predicting all sorts of problems in the near future. Since then reserves have risen to the current U$30Bn level, and the press has been strangely quiet on the subject. One wonders why.......

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So which country is more prepared for any downturn in international commodities prices? The above figures seem to suggest that Venezuela is better placed than many imagine to ride out any forward weakness, but Chile’s more diversified economy should also be taken into account. Although Chile is obviously dependent on copper, it is worth noting that exports of other products have increased in the period in question. As the next chart shows, exports in absolute terms of non-metallic goods have risen in the course of this decade as Chile is also a major exporter of products such as fish, fish meal, fruits, wines etc. Chilean exporters though are fighting an uphill struggle against a perpetually rising currency.

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Notwithstanding, the progress made by Venezuela in accumulation of international reserves far outstrips that of Chile, even though the more southerly nation runs a type of current account with the IMF that allows it to deposit and withdraw funds at any given moment in an attempt to allow smoother expenditure over the irregular period of income from commodities.

As for that future, recent price action suggests that Chile’s main export is looking weaker than that of Venezuela’s. LME spot copper has fallen over 20% in recent weeks, but the rise of oil on world markets to near U$100/bbl levels hardly needs much further comment here. Present copper weakness has been fuelled by the 18% YoY production rise inside China, with many analysts predicting that the world’s largest consumer will not be buying so much at the world market in 2008. ICSG figures currently point to world supply and demand at an equilibrium, which differs sharply from the supply constraints in petroleum products that come more from limited capacity growth in refineries more than the supply of crude from the ground or geopolitical pressures.

It should be stressed that direct employment in Chilean mining and Venezuelan oil makes up around 1% of the total workforce of each country, so the effects of a downturn would not show themselves in any layoff measures from either sector. However, in the same way that PdVSA is the main wealth producer in Venezuela, the copper mining industry in Chile plays the same role. In a 2006 survey by Ecoconsult, 92% of wealth creation in Chile was confined to Codelco and two other major copper miners.

Politically, Chile has been coming under greater pressure from its populace to spend more of its copper windfall. Polls suggest that two out of three Chileans want its government to relax the saving rules with the IMF and spend more of the windfall on social projects. This makes sense in a country that is ostensibly prosperous, but in fact runs the second highest level of social inequality in the LatAm region.

Conclusion

We chose Venezuela as the mirror to reflect on the state of play in today’s Chile for two main reasons, namely the dependence on one single export for the ongoing well-being in the countries and the vast difference in perception amongst other nations towards the countries. The administrations of both countries profess to be socialist, but the government of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela has, rightly or wrongly and for various reasons, a polemic position amongst fellow nations, with many seemingly desperate for the time that its president is toppled due to a sudden drop in oil prices. However the sound reputation and good standing of today’s Chile is to a very great extent also highly economically dependent on a single export, but for whatever reason it does not grab the limelight in the same way as Hugo’s black gold.

We therefore wonder how much the ‘A’ rating S&P has on Chilean sovereign bonds has to do with purely economic concerns and how much political stability seeps into the equation. We are sure the stability (or the lack thereof) will be front and center in both countries if the price of copper and oil take a sudden and drastic turn for the worse in the next few years.