Pakistan: Musharraf's second coup

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Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf declares a state of emergency, rounds up his political opponents and stifles the media in a desperate attempt to hang on to power, using the war on terror as a justification for sacrificing democracy. In the meantime, Washington must reconsider its relationship with this trusted ally and what the real goals of the war on terror should be. From ISA.

Ostensibly, the war on terror is the modern-day savior of democracy, but increasingly we find that it is instead its defiler. In Pakistan, where few would now be surprised at the lengths to which General Pervez Musharraf is willing to go to hold on to power, democracy is the greatest victim of the war on terror.

Over the weekend, Musharraf outdid himself in imposing emergency rule and arresting hundreds of opposition figures and protesters. And the restoration of democratic legitimacy now seems a nearly insurmountable challenge.

Musharraf has sent a clear message to the people of Pakistan: He will not be opposed, and the war on terror is his trump card. On Saturday, the general declared a state of emergency, which means crucial parliamentary elections scheduled for January will be postponed. On Sunday, he followed up this measure by arresting hundreds of his opponents, including judges, human rights activists and politicians.

Though Musharraf and his spokespeople insist that the elections will still take place at an undisclosed date, the general will take pains to ensure that any future poll will not lead to the restoration of civilian rule - a step long-awaited by the public.

As for the media, Musharraf took steps to silence their voices, blocking broadcasts by private television channels in most cities, and even jamming domestic signals for the BBC and CNN.

Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry is reportedly locked up in his home in Islamabad, with a police cordon making sure he stays put and isolated, according to local media reports, while senior judges are being replaced by those friendly to Musharraf.

On Sunday, police broke up a small demonstration near the presidential compound. And troops have been stationed outside main government buildings. The country's lawyers were reportedly planning more protests, but the police presence and violent crackdown hoped to lessen the number of people willing to risk taking to the streets.

However, on Monday, Pakistan police used teargas and batons to fight back lawyers protesting the imposition of emergency rule and the series of raid and arrests targeting the opposition. In Karachi, police used batons to break up protesting lawyers, and in Lahore, police used tear gas to disperse lawyers who had raided the offices of the local chief justice, a Musharraf loyalist. In all, around 200 lawyers were arrested in Lahore and dozens in Karachi, according to local news reports. As many as 500 political opponents had been arrested over the weekend, prior to this outbreak.

Surely none can doubt the extent of the crisis that has engulfed Pakistan under Musharraf's rule. The instability that has followed in his authoritarian wake can in no way be credited as a victory for the war on terror. His decisive actions against terrorist threats have only emboldened extremists while furiously chipping away at the democratic system. Few are convinced of the Pakistani leader's dedication to the war on terror when his democratic opponents are rounded up with as much gusto as Islamic extremists on the country's restive border with Afghanistan.

The timing of this second coup could not have been more significant: the Supreme Court was scheduled to rule very soon on a parliamentary vote that reelected Musharraf - who originally seized power in a 1999 coup - as president. The vote had been boycotted by the opposition and the Supreme Court was set to rule on the legitimacy of the ballot. A state of emergency ensures that this will not happen - at least until the judges are replaced with loyalists.

Musharraf has also announced that his previous pledge to quit his post as army chief is now "in limbo."

All of this is not to say that Islamic extremism is not a very serious threat in Pakistan, but the real question is whether Musharraf has perhaps not compounded that threat and even used it to foster a state of emergency that secures his future leadership of the country.

In October, 139 people were killed in a bomb attack in Karachi, during a parade to welcome former prime minister Benazir Bhutto home after years in self-imposed exile. Since July alone, 800 Pakistanis have been killed in attacks - most of them in retribution for Musharraf's highly publicized storming of the Red Mosque, which was said to be sheltering Islamic extremists. But his latest coup will bring the Islamists to the forefront as - with the rest of Musharraf's political rivals rounded up and behind bars - they constitute the country's main opposition group.

Musharraf may shout "war on terror" until blue in the face, but even his staunchest supporters in Washington seem to be wavering in their support.

The US has stuck by the president - who has so far been easily molded to serve the interests of the war on terror even at the expense of democracy and stability. However, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice criticized Musharraf's actions and said Washington would review its aid disbursements to Pakistan (US$10 billion over the past half decade), which have largely gone to the military.

In a weekend statement, Senator Joseph Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, urged the Bush administration to "move from a Musharraf policy to a Pakistan policy."

In recent months, Washington had been busy trying to foster a power-sharing deal between Musharraf and Bhutto (another would-be pawn in the war on terror). Things had been going fairly well until this weekend: Musharraf had promised to shed his military uniform, forfeiting his unconstitutional dual tenure of the presidency and military leadership, and cutting a deal with Bhutto that would have seen massive corruption charges against her dropped and paved the way for her to become prime minister again. With Bhutto in the prime minister's seat, Washington surmised that the power of the country's Islamic parties would be quelled.

That deal now seems all but forgotten.

However, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates remained less than committed to pressuring his Pakistani ally, telling reporters during a visit to Beijing that Musharraf must return his country to "law-based, constitutional and democratic rule as soon as possible," but adding this telling caveat: "We are reviewing all our assistance programs [to Pakistan], although we are mindful not to do anything that would undermine counter-terrorism efforts."

Having placing all its eggs in the Musharraf basket, Washington is ill-prepared to completely abandon its ally with no alternative plan in place.

In the meantime, protests continue, and though the state of emergency initially suppressed these to a level of relative insignificance, Monday's protests by lawyers, particularly in Karachi and Lahore, demonstrate that the people have not succumbed to the silence of fear.

Musharraf has backed democracy into a corner, leaving the people with a choice between two unpleasant options: silence or revolt. The Pakistani leader is clearly banking on the notion that the people are not ready to risk a revolution just yet. It is too early to tell whether they will indeed call his bluff.